四川地区多模式2m温度预报性能分析及集成方法研究          下载免费PDF全文

冯良敏  周秋雪  陈朝平  范江琳 《高原山地气象研究》2019,39(2):30-36

本文通过分析2017年9~12月四川地区ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting)细网格模式、GRAPES_GFS(Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System)全球模式和西南区域模式(South West Center-WRF ADAS Real-time Modeling System, SWCWARMS)2m温度168h预报时效内的系统性偏差特征,采用滑动双权重平均法分别对三种模式温度预报产品进行偏差订正,并集成得到各时效2m温度的订正场,结果表明:(1)三种模式的预报存在明显的日变化,整体上EC模式的预报最优。(2)三种模式对于低温和高温的预报,在全省均大致呈现负的系统性误差,特别在高原及过渡区表现的尤为明显。(3)订正后三种模式的预报准确率显著提高,均方根误差减小1.4~2.5℃,大部分地区平均误差维持在±0.5℃之间,在系统性偏差较大的地区,订正效果更好。(4)两种集成方案预报结果接近,且均优于三种模式的订正预报。  相似文献   

Synoptic analysis of sea level pressure patterns and Vertically Integrated Moisture Flux Convergence VIMFC during the occurrence of durable and pervasive rainfall in Iran     

《Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans》2019

To carry out this research, interpolated data of daily rainfall from Iran’s Asfazari data base during 1/1/1979–31/12/2013 is used. The day along with pervasive rainfall considered a day that at least 50% of Iran’s territory has received more than 1 mm for at least two consecutive days. Based on mentioned thresholds, 224 days selected for statistical analysis. The sea level pressure data, zonal and meridional wind components and specific humidity with spatial resolution of 0.25*0.25 Gaussian degree in spatial domain of 10 °N to 60 °N and 15 °E to 75 °E obtained from the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) ERA-Interim for selected days. Then on the data matrix of sea level pressure, the cluster analysis by Ward linkage method done and 4 sea level pressure patterns with different configuration of synoptic systems were identified. The findings showed that in the sea level, the interaction between southern thermal low pressure systems (Arabia low pressure) with Europe and Siberia cold immigrant high pressure both by individual and integration and anticyclone circulation of Arab sea from the low level of 1000–500 hPa of troposphere have the most role on occurrence of durable and pervasive rainfall of Iran. The most Vertically Integrated Moisture Flux Convergence in the first layer of troposphere (1000–850 hPa) observed in low height regions, in the second layer of troposphere (775–700 hPa) on Zagros Mountains and in third layer of troposphere (600–500 hPa) is seen in mountains leeward of Iran. Also the results showed that the maximum rainfall cores has the most coordination with Vertically Integrated Moisture Flux Convergence (VIMFC) in the second layer of troposphere (775–700 hPa) on the Zagros heights in the southwest of Iran.  相似文献   

1822号“山竹”台风龙卷过程观测与预警分析     

黄先香  炎利军  王硕甫  蔡康龙  余乐福 《热带气象学报》2019,35(4):458-469

2018年9月17日09:37—10:00,在登陆台风“山竹”外围螺旋雨带中,广东省佛山市三水区到肇庆市四会区发生了EF2级强龙卷,龙卷路径长度18 km,持续时间23 min,平均时速47 km/h,导致不少建筑物损毁。本次过程佛山市进行了龙卷预警试验,提前37 min发布了龙卷预警,龙卷没有造成人员伤亡。利用观测资料对产生强龙卷的环境场特征、地面自动站和雷达观测的中小尺度特征以及龙卷预警试验进行了分析,结果表明:产生龙卷的微型超级单体出现在台风外围和副高边缘之间的强东南急流中,具有低层辐合、高层辐散、水汽充足等典型台风外围龙卷环流形势特征;强的低空0~1 km垂直风切变、大的风暴相对螺旋度和低的抬升凝结高度等环境条件利于龙卷的生成;龙卷影响时,邻近地面自动气象站观测要素表现出明显的信号,瞬时大风和最低气压的极值区呈东南至西北向带状分布,与龙卷路径一致,龙卷过境前后,单站气压“漏斗”明显,5 min降压/升压幅度达-2.5 hPa/+2.1 hPa;广州多普勒天气雷达探测到龙卷母体风暴的低层钩状回波和入流缺口特征,以及低层强中气旋和类TVS特征。预警试验初步表明,对台风龙卷高发区,在环境场有利情况下,若低层出现中等或以上强度中气旋,其底高在1 km以下,可以考虑发布龙卷预警。   相似文献   

青海同仁县江里沟斑岩-矽卡岩型铜钨钼矿床辉钼矿Re-Os同位素年龄及其成矿意义     

张涛  张德会  杨兵  张辉  喻晓 《地质学报》2015,89(2):355-364

西秦岭同德—泽库多金属成矿带是青海省重要的矿产集中区之一,位于西秦岭北缘斑岩-矽卡岩型铜、钼、金成矿带的最西端。江里沟矿床是该区的重要组成部分,为一个典型的斑岩型-矽卡岩型铜钨钼矿床。本文利用Re-Os同位素定年方法对江里沟铜钨钼矿床进行了成矿时代测定,获得了5件样品辉钼矿的Re-Os同位素模式年龄范围为219.5±3.1~222.2±4.0Ma,等时线年龄为224.3±7.3Ma。矿区二长花岗岩SHRIMP锆石UPb年龄测定结果表明岩石存在两个期次结晶年龄232±4Ma和214±4Ma,矿区花岗岩可能是两个期次岩浆活动的产物。根据斑岩型矿床矿化晚于成矿母岩的特征,认为江里沟矿床成矿时代属晚三叠世,与矿区232Ma期次的岩浆侵入活动关系密切,成矿晚于成岩约8Ma,成矿与成岩时代基本一致,是西秦岭印支期构造-岩浆活动的产物。本次研究可以大致确定岗察复式岩体周边矿床成矿时限为243.8~214Ma,与区域西秦岭—东昆仑三叠纪构造岩浆作用和成矿时代一致,构成西秦岭北缘斑岩-矽卡岩型铜-钼-金成矿系统的一部分。  相似文献   

三江造山带义敦岛弧中段格聂（南）花岗岩体地球化学特征及地质意义   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

马比阿伟  木合塔尔·扎日  文登奎  张明春 《地质学报》2015,89(2):305-318

夹持于甘孜—理塘结合带与金沙江结合带之间的义敦弧岩浆岩带上发育了3条纵贯南北的造山花岗岩带,其中:中带形成了由20余个岩体组成的雀而山—格聂花岗岩带和相关的银、锌、铅-锌多金属矿床。本文对格聂(南)花岗岩体进行研究,发现其岩石类型为花岗闪长岩、二长花岗岩和钾长花岗岩三类,以二长花岗岩为主体。锆石LA-ICP-MS U-Pb定年结果表明格聂花岗岩的成岩年龄为89.9±3.6Ma。地球化学研究表明,岩石中主量元素化学成分具有富硅、富铝、低钠高钾的特征,为典型的S型花岗岩。铝饱和指数ASI1,指示岩浆源自地壳;(CaO)%/(Na2O)%值等于0.1左右,表明源岩为大陆地壳沉积岩区的泥质岩。稀土总量均值228.83×10-6,稀土配分曲线呈略右倾近直线海鸥型,与地壳熔融型花岗岩形态一致。轻重稀土分馏不明显;铕出现明显负异常(δEu=0.13),显示岩浆分异结晶作用强烈。微量元素蛛网图上明显亏损大离子亲石元素Sr;富集高场强元素U。Rb/Sr平均比值14.97,表明格聂花岗岩的源岩为上部陆壳。结合Rb-(Y+Nb)图解、(Rb/30)-Hf-(Ta×3)图解、R1-R2变异图解,格聂南岩体形成于后碰撞造山环境,应是甘孜-理塘洋盆和金沙江洋盆闭合后,造山后伸展作用活动的产物。  相似文献   

广西乐业泥盆系—石炭系沉积碳酸盐岩脉及地震事件沉积的新发现     

彭阳  陆刚 《地质论评》2015,61(2):281-287

广西右江盆地发育多个孤立碳酸盐岩台地,在各台地边缘广泛发育同沉积断层及沉积碳酸盐岩脉,常常发育地震事件记录。在广西乐业台地边缘上泥盆统融县组鲕粒灰岩、藻粘结灰岩等地层中新识别出多条晚泥盆世沉积灰岩脉:玛瑙纹状灰岩脉、白云岩脉、微晶灰岩脉及藻灰岩脉等,新识别出早石炭世海百合茎灰岩脉(内部结构呈高密度颗粒流状新类型),同时观察到同沉积断层及同生角砾岩、层内断错及原地震裂岩等,为沉积碳酸盐岩脉的成因提供新的证据,同时表明在乐业台地边缘,至少有两次同沉积正断层的活动,一次发生在晚泥盆世,诱发了脉及围岩均为晚泥盆世融县期的沉积碳酸盐岩脉、层内断错及原地震裂岩;一次发生在早石炭世,诱发的脉为早石炭世尧云岭期,围岩为上泥盆统融县组的沉积灰岩脉及伴生角砾岩。展示了在广西右江盆地发生张裂背景下,乐业台地边缘同沉积正断层活动,诱发地震事件,同时伴生张裂隙,即沉积灰岩脉的构造-沉积过程,是广西右江盆地在晚古生代伸展过程的历史记录。  相似文献   

酸溶-电感耦合等离子发射光谱法测定密西西比型铅锌矿床矿石中的铅   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

卢彦  冯勇  李刚  刘卫 《岩矿测试》2015,34(4):442-447

密西西比型(MVT)铅锌矿床的主要矿物有方铅石、闪锌矿,常伴生有重晶石、萤石等矿物,使得MVT型矿石在酸处理过程中易生成不溶于水和酸的硫酸铅钡复盐,故而检测矿样中铅的含量偏低。本文建立了采用盐酸-硝酸-氢氟酸体系酸溶分解MVT型矿石,电感耦合等离子体发射光谱法(ICP-OES)测定铅含量的分析方法。实验比较了盐酸-硝酸-氢氟酸、盐酸-硝酸-氢氟酸-高氯酸、盐酸-硝酸-硫酸三种酸溶体系的溶样效果,并通过X射线衍射论证了方法的可行性。结果表明,盐酸-硝酸-氢氟酸体系克服了复盐硫酸铅钡和硫酸铅沉淀的生成,适量的氢氟酸促进了Pb SO4的溶解,X射线衍射表征也表明此种酸溶体系的沉淀中不含有Pb SO4,可更彻底地分解MVT型矿石。本方法精密度(RSD)为0.3%~0.6%,实际样品的加标回收率为96.0%~99.2%,铅的最佳检测范围为0.01%~20.0%。  相似文献   

阿拉善宗乃山岩体东南缘花岗岩LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb年龄与地球化学特征   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

谢奋全  王黎栋  李琦  石朝霞  陈学兵  韦岸 《岩矿测试》2015,34(3):375-382

阿拉善宗乃山岩体东南缘分布多种类型的花岗岩,本文主要采用岩相学、激光剥蚀电感耦合等离子体质谱(LA-ICP-MS)锆石U-Pb定年、岩石地球化学等技术手段,对宗乃山岩体东南缘岩石类型、年代学、源岩特征以及构造背景进行了研究。结果表明:岩石类型主要为碱性-钙碱性准铝质花岗岩和闪长岩;单颗粒锆石分析获得黑云母斜长花岗岩年龄为236.8±1.9 Ma~249.7±2.6 Ma,片麻状花岗岩年龄为268.1±1.1 Ma,岩体成岩时期主要为华力西晚期和印支期早期,具有多期侵入的特征。该岩体岩石源岩为I型花岗岩,源于地壳火山弧区和同碰撞区,表明由于洋壳俯冲作用,在宗乃山东南缘形成了岛弧花岗岩侵入体。LA-ICP-MS锆石U-Pb定年技术为洋壳俯冲提供了年代学约束,确定了研究区碰撞时间为早于236.8±1.9 Ma。  相似文献   

Neoglacial (<3000 years) till and flutes at Saskatchewan Glacier,Canadian Rocky Mountains,formed by subglacial deformation of a soft bed          下载免费PDF全文

Nick Eyles  Joe. I. Boyce  Niko Putkinen 《Sedimentology》2015,62(1):182-203

Understanding the processes that deposit till below modern glaciers provides fundamental information for interpreting ancient subglacial deposits. A process‐deposit‐landform model is developed for the till bed of Saskatchewan Glacier in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. The glacier is predominantly hard bedded in its upper reaches and flows through a deep valley carved into resistant Palaeozoic carbonates but the ice margin rests on a thick (<6 m) soft bed of silt‐rich deformation till that has been exposed as the glacier retreats from its Little Ice Age limit reached in 1854. In situ tree stumps rooted in a palaeosol under the till are dated between ca 2900 and 2700 yr bp and record initial glacier expansion during the Neoglacial. Sedimentological and stratigraphic observations underscore the importance of subglacial deformation of glaciofluvial outwash deposited in front of the advancing glacier and mixing with glaciolacustrine carbonate‐rich silt to form a soft bed. The exposed till plain has a rolling drumlinoid topography inherited from overridden end moraines and is corrugated by more than 400 longitudinal flute ridges which record deformation of the soft bed and fall into three genetically related types: those developed in propagating incipient cavities in the lee of large subglacial boulders embedded in deformation till, and those lacking any originating boulder and formed by pressing of wet till up into radial crevasses under stagnant ice. A third type consists of U‐shaped flutes akin to barchan dunes; these wrap around large boulders at the downglacier ends of longitudinal scours formed by the bulldozing of boulders by the ice front during brief winter readvances across soft till. Pervasive subglacial deformation during glacier expansion was probably facilitated by large boulders rotating within the soft bed (‘glacioturbation’).  相似文献   

新疆青河县库布苏破碎蚀变岩型金矿元素迁移特征与规律研究     

郑海平 《地质与勘探》2015,51(2):332-344

本文以新疆库布苏金矿北矿带为研究对象,讨论了库布苏金矿床北矿带元素活动特征,成矿及伴生元素、主量元素、微量元素、稀土元素的质量迁移规律;根据稀土元素的质量迁移、地球化学特征,初步探讨了成矿流体的环境条件和来源问题;并依据元素迁移地球化学图研究了库布苏北矿带105勘探线剖面的元素质量迁移程度和范围。研究结果表明,赋矿闪长玢岩脉及围岩的元素发生明显的带入带出作用,元素迁移活动规律明显,成矿阶段发生明显带入有Au、As、Bi、Ag、Sb、K2O、Si O2,说明引起闪长玢岩脉和接触带围岩蚀变的流体中富含Au、As、K2O、Si O2等,导致这些带入元素向矿体迁移富集;发生明显带出的有Ba、Sr、Cu、Mg O、Na2O、Fe2O3、Ca O,说明Ba、Sr、Mg O、Na2O等受热液蚀变作用随流体迁出。矿区岩脉的稀土元素质量变化显著,发生明显的带入带出,岩脉交代蚀变前后的轻重稀土分馏均明显,蚀变后的岩脉轻重稀土分馏程度有减小趋势。赋矿闪长玢岩脉稀土元素配分曲线右倾,轻稀土富集,轻重稀土分馏明显,Eu强烈负异常,Ce弱负异常,说明库布苏金矿成矿流体条件应为较高温度和还原环境。从围岩与脉岩中元素的迁移程度和迁移范围可见,带入的成矿指示元素有As、W、Sb、Bi,带出的成矿指示元素有Mg、Na。  相似文献